MH370 - FIRST PRINCIPLES REVIEW [November 2-4 2016]
This is the latest report from the Australian Transportation Safety Bureau, as far as I. The link will take you to the report but I've copied some of it below. The expected completion is March 2018, as highlighted below. Question - Why do all the updates and reports/situation releases always have to come out on the anniversary? Surely this makes a mockery of the entire investigation. Just release the reports and stop pissing around playing childish games with people's emotions.
This is not some Broadway production - though the entire way this investigation has been conducted is an utter disgrace!
MESSAGE TO ALL FAMILY AND FRIENDS OF THOSE ABOARD MH370 -
This case is not closed by a long shot. I, along with many other dedicated individuals,intend to pursue this for as long as it takes to get exposure to the world in general and to obtain justice for those taken in this tragedy.
https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2014/aair/ae-2014-054/
Aviation safety investigations & reports
Assistance to Malaysian Ministry of Transport in support of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on 7 March 2014 UTC
Investigation number: AE-2014-054
Investigation status: Active
First Principles Review
This report documents the proceedings and outcomes of the First Principles Review meeting on the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 held in Canberra from 2 to 4 November 2016. Participants consisted of experts in data processing, satellite communications, accident investigation, aircraft performance, flight operations, sonar data, acoustic data and oceanography. The purpose of the meeting was to reassess and validate existing evidence and to identify any new analysis that may assist in identifying the location of the missing aircraft.
Throughout the search, the ATSB has issued several reports updating the definition of the search area based on analysis progressively refined, or when new information has come to light. This document complements those reports and provides a summary of the detailed analysis of the satellite data combined with new evidence derived from the modelling of the drift of debris from the aircraft.
The experts attending the meeting considered:
The results of the search to date.
Satellite communication metadata and its analysis including methodology, assumptions, limitations, the probability distributions of possible flight paths, and validation results.
Results from simulations and the aircraft manufacturer’s analysis of aircraft performance.
The width of the search area based on what is known about the end of the flight.
Hydro-acoustic analysis potentially relevant to the search.
Failure analysis of recovered debris.
Drift analysis of aircraft debris.
For background information, please refer to the previous ATSB publications available online at www.atsb.gov.au/mh370
The updated independent analysis of the satellite data and the drift analysis consistently identified the most likely impact location of MH370 as being close to the 7th arc[1] (within ~25 NM) and bounded by latitudes of approximately 33°S to 36°S.
There is a high degree of confidence that the previously identified underwater area searched to date does not contain the missing aircraft. Given the elimination of this area, the experts identified an area of approximately 25,000 km² as the area with the highest probability of containing the wreckage of the aircraft. The experts concluded that, if this area were to be searched, prospective areas for locating the aircraft wreckage, based on all the analysis to date, would be exhausted. Are this lot shitting us???!!!!!! "There is a high degree of confidence....." Well I recall hearing in January of 2015 that...... "we are confident we will find MH370 within the next twelve months." How can they be that sure unless they KNOW where it's going to magically "pop" up?! Furthermore - given that the search area has been eliminated - why not go where they "think" MH370 is - further to the north?
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[1] The 7th arc is an arc of possible aircraft positions, equidistant from Inmarsat’s Indian Ocean Region satellite, where the accident aircraft made the final series of satellite communications transmissions. It is the key datum in the search for MH370 and its derivation is described in previous ATSB search area definition reports.
The First Principles Review
Satellite data
Width of the search area
Drift analysis
Residual Probability Map
Conclusions
General details
General details
Date:07 Mar 2014
Investigation status:Active
Time:1722 UTC
Investigation type:External Investigation
Location:Southern Indian Ocean
Occurrence type:Missing aircraft
State:International
Occurrence class:Technical
Release date:24 May 2016
Occurrence category:Technical Analysis
Report status:Pending
Highest injury level:Fatal
Expected completion:Mar 2018
Aircraft details
Aircraft details
Aircraft model:777-200ER
Aircraft registration:9M-MRO
Operator:Malaysian Airlines
Type of operation:Air Transport High Capacity
Sector:Jet
Departure point:Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Destination:Beijing, China
Last update 28 February 2017
